Tijuana’s industrial market has gone through different stages of growth and adjustment over recent years, in response to changes in demand for space and the pace at which new developments have come online. The industrial dynamism that characterized the city during 2021 and 2022 drove significant leasing activity and attracted investment to expand the existing inventory. However, the conditions that favored that expansion began to change as deliveries was added and companies moderated their occupancy decisions. This process gradually shifted the balance between supply and demand, leading the market to record higher vacancy levels. Nevertheless, the October 2026 results show a different movement in the evolution of this indicator.

During the years of greatest dynamism, Tijuana maintained particularly limited industrial availability, with vacancy rates below 1%. This scenario encouraged the development of new projects and the participation of developers seeking to meet the demand for industrial space. Over time, the addition of square footage began to outpace the rate of absorption, while the vacating of some properties added pressure on supply. As a result, the vacancy rate kept an upward trajectory until it exceeded 10% at the close of the third quarter of 2026. However, at the end of October, the indicator fell to 9.7%, marking a reduction from the previous period.

Of interest: Industrial Report: Solili | October 2026

The decline in vacancy during October was related to greater leasing activity, which partially offset the space vacated during the month. This behavior favored a reduction in available supply, after several quarters in which the addition of space and vacancies had kept upward pressure on the indicator. During October 2026, industrial demand exceeded 60,000 square meters, while vacated space remained below 11,000 square meters.

By geographic distribution, the Otay–Alamar submarket concentrated a significant share of the month’s transactions, driven by the lease of more than 50,000 square meters by a television manufacturer. This transaction had a decisive weight in the monthly result and reflects the importance of large-footprint deals in the evolution of demand and vacancy indicators in the Tijuana market.

October’s performance also stood out when compared with previous periods. On a quarterly basis, the space leased during the first month of Q4 2026 represented about 60% of the volume accumulated throughout the entire previous quarter. Likewise, compared to October 2025, demand registered an increase of more than 50,000 square meters, evidencing greater leasing activity on an annual basis. These results show a more dynamic start to the quarter, although two months remain to assess its full performance.

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Despite the reduction recorded during October, Tijuana’s industrial market maintains a considerable supply of space that needs to be gradually brought into leasing activity. At the close of the month, vacancy stood at 9.7%, with around one million square meters available, remaining among the highest levels in the country. The evolution of demand over the coming months will be relevant in determining whether October’s rebound represents the start of greater occupancy activity or responds mainly to isolated large-footprint transactions. In this context, the pace of absorption and the addition of deliveries will continue to be determining factors in rebalancing the border industrial market.