About to complete two years with T-MEC. How much more can the economic relationship between Mexico and the United States grow? This relationship has increased sevenfold since NAFTA came into force 28 years ago. It was worth 93,000 million dollars in 1993 and now it amounts to 661,000 million dollars, if we take the figures of 2021 as a reference.

This economic partnership generates 5 million jobs in the United States and another 5 million jobs in Mexico, according to a document from the US Mexico Center in San Diego.

On the Mexican side, these jobs are almost always related to the highest levels of productivity and also to salaries well above the labor market average.

Integration is palpable in industries such as automotive and electronics, but it can also be seen in a cultural and consumer industry where things are happening that were unthinkable 30 years ago, such as the high demand for Mexican-style hot sauces and shows that generate more money in the United States than in Mexico.

See also: Behavior of capitalization rates in industrial assets

If the pace of the first three decades were kept up, by 2050 we would have a bilateral relationship worth more than $4 trillion a year (trillions, the northern neighbors would say). A growth of this magnitude seems unlikely, because it would mean multiplying trade by seven again in 30 years.

Furthermore, it implies having circumstances similar to those experienced between 1994 and 2022, including the shared trust between the elites and the people of Mexico and the United States that free trade between our countries is the best way to have economic relations. binational.

The biggest growth opportunity is in nearshoring. The decoupling of the productive chains of the United States with respect to China could mean a greater coupling with Mexico, while the greatest threat is the emergence of nationalist and protectionist tendencies on both sides of the border.

The opportunities derived from this relocation of investments that are now in China are real, with Mexico being a natural candidate to capture part of that river of money, but it is not something that will happen automatically.

Of interest: With low vacancy rates, the creation of new industrial parks in the country is necessary

China became the world leader in attracting Foreign Direct Investment, because it made large investments in infrastructure and education and the question is whether Mexico will be ready to get it right when the time comes for nearshoring answers.

Now, in the specific case of T-MEC, the commercial controversies between Mexico and the United States are visible. On behalf of Mexico (along with Canada), the request for a panel to resolve the differences in the interpretation that the United States makes of the rules of origin in the automotive industry, which has generated for Mexico 93,000 million dollars of exports and about 1 million jobs.

On the part of the United States, the actions that the Government of Mexico has taken to protect Pemex and CFE are the focus of attention. They can go for a panel, as established by the T-MEC or for actions with greater political profitability.

We live in unpredictable times because everything is being redefined. How much can the economic relationship with the United States shrink?

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Original note