In July 2025, Mexico's industrial real estate sector continued its reconfiguration process in response to a landscape of polarized trade relations and a strengthening of protectionist policies. In light of a possible renegotiation of the USMCA, as well as the extension granted to Mexican exports, the treaty's role as a strategic pillar for the integration of supply chains in North America is reaffirmed.

Given this scenario, demand for industrial warehouses nationwide reached a total of 440,000 square meters in July 2025, maintaining the deceleration trend that has prevailed throughout this year. Compared to July 2024, leasing of industrial properties in Mexico registered a decrease of 18%.

The decline in industrial leasing activity was evident in most of the country's markets. Guadalajara registered a sharp decline, with a decrease of more than 20,000 square meters in demand compared to July 2024. In the northern region of the country, Monterrey, Saltillo, and Tijuana reported half the volume of demand recorded in the same period last year.

In contrast, among the markets that reported positive leasing activity were Ciudad Juárez, where industrial demand doubled compared to the same month last year. Meanwhile, Mexico City and Guanajuato registered increases of 13% and 6%, respectively, reflecting stability in the current economic context.

At the end of the seventh month of 2025, the total vacated space in Mexico was 200,000 square meters, representing a year-over-year increase of 50%. The markets with the largest move outs were Tijuana and Mexico City, with 71,000 and 47,000 square meters, respectively.

In the year-over-year comparison, Tijuana's industrial market saw a sharp increase in the vacated space, doubling the figure recorded in July 2024. Mexico City also saw a 55% increase.

In July 2025, industrial real estate construction in Mexico reached nearly 4.8 million square meters, reflecting the dynamism of new project development despite the slower pace of industrial leasing and the increase in market supply. Monterrey is the market with the largest concentration of projects under construction, with approximately 36% of the national total, followed by Mexico City with approximately 16%, and Saltillo and Guadalajara, with a share of approximately 10% each.

The supply of industrial space in Mexico increased as a result of the slowdown in leasing, the increase in vacancies, and the completion of new developments that are adding to the vacant inventory, increasing by 1.8 million square meters compared to July 2024.

In this context, the average national vacancy rate stood at 4.2%, indicating a relatively balanced market. However, significant differences are observed between regions. Markets such as Mexico City, Saltillo, and Puebla are registering rates below 2%. Meanwhile, in the northern region of the country, the supply of industrial properties has increased considerably, with markets such as Tijuana, Mexicali, and Reynosa showing vacancy rates above 6%.

The average rental price for industrial space in Mexico closed July 2025 at $7.22 USD/m²/month. The markets with the highest rates continue to be Mexico City, with an average of $9.47 USD, and Tijuana, with $8.69 USD/m²/month. In contrast, the markets with the most competitive prices were Guanajuato and San Luis Potosí, with average rates of $5.02 USD/m²/month and $5.58 USD/m²/month, respectively.

The Mexican real estate sector is showing signs of transitioning toward a more selective environment with higher levels of competition. Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, both developers and marketers are expected to focus their efforts on locating available space, adjusting their plans to current market conditions. Therefore, greater caution is expected in launching new projects and a commitment to solutions tailored to user needs.