During the second quarter of 2025, the global economic and political environment exerted a significant influence on Mexico. Internationally, geopolitical tensions, fluctuating inflation in key economies, and central bank monetary policies set a tone of uncertainty.

Mexico is positioned as a relevant player, driven by its strategic location, trade openness, and diversified manufacturing base. While the country is not immune to international economic ups and downs, Mexican economic policy, with a focus on macroeconomic stability and investment promotion, seeks to capitalize on the opportunities emerging from the current global situations.

In this context, most of the country's industrial real estate markets reported less encouraging figures in the second quarter of 2025 compared to previous periods.

According to figures from Solili, the inventory of the country's fifteen most important industrial markets grew at an annual rate of 6.7%, representing a new supply of nearly 6.8 million m² in the last twelve months. In the quarterly comparison, we identified a total of 87 new industrial warehouses that are part of the existing national inventory.

Once again, and for more than two consecutive years, Monterrey stood out, increasing its inventory by just over 600,000 m², or 35% of the total new national supply. Mexico City followed with nearly 200,000 m². Other markets with notable activity, each exceeding 100,000 m², were Guadalajara, Tijuana, Querétaro, Saltillo, and Mexicali. In contrast, Puebla, Aguascalientes, Chihuahua, and Reynosa did not report an increase in their inventories during this quarter.

Regarding vacancy, an upward trend was identified nationwide. At the close of the second quarter of 2025, the total vacant square meters in the country reached almost 4.3 million, representing an increase of 1.6 million square meters compared to the same period last year. The markets with the largest annual increases in vacancy were Monterrey, Tijuana, Ciudad Juárez, and San Luis Potosí.

It is worth noting that Guanajuato's industrial real estate market was the only one nationwide to close the quarter with a decrease in the number of square meters available for rent or sale, compared to data from a year ago.

The national vacancy rate closed the second quarter of 2025 at 4%. This represented a quarterly increase of 70 basis points, and a 140 basis point increase compared to the second quarter of 2024. Although vacancy rates remain healthy in most markets across the country, Mexicali, Reynosa, Ciudad Juárez, Tijuana, and Monterrey began to attract attention by closing with figures above 5%.

The global economic and political context, as well as its effect on the national level, impacted industrial leasing activity. Figures reported by Solili indicate that leasing during the second quarter of 2025 was one of the lowest since 2021. A total of 937,000 m² were leased, 28% lower than the previous quarter and 37% lower than the figure recorded a year ago.

Net absorption nationwide closed the quarter at 986,000 m². The markets that contributed the most to this figure were Monterrey with 268,000 m², followed by Guadalajara with 180,000 m², and Saltillo, Mexico City, and Querétaro with nearly 100,000 m² each.

Between April and June 2025, construction began on 51 new industrial warehouses, totaling 945,000 m². Monterrey, Mexico City, Tijuana, and Guadalajara were the markets with the greatest activity. This indicator has reported declines over the past year.

National construction volumes closed the halfway point of the year at 4.8 million m², reflecting a decrease of approximately 700,000 m² compared to the previous period and Q2 2024.

Developers have acted with greater caution, especially in markets where leasing or vacancy does not justify the construction of new projects.

Although there are elements in the fundamental indicators of the Mexican real estate market that suggest industrial rental prices are under downward pressure, they have remained stable, even reporting slight increases nationwide. This effect can be attributed to inflation, especially the persistent inflation in materials for the construction of industrial spaces.

At the end of June 2025, the average rental price for industrial warehouses in Mexico was $7.16 USD/m²/month, representing an increase of 15 cents compared to the previous quarter and 36 cents compared to the same period last year.

The highest prices nationwide were in Mexico City at $9.47 USD/m²/month. In contrast, the markets with the lowest prices are in the Bajío region, Guanajuato, and San Luis Potosí, with prices ranging between $5.00 and $5.50 USD/m²/month.

The industrial real estate market in Mexico, despite its stable performance, has recently shown indicators worth analyzing and interpreting from different perspectives. While the country has historically benefited from its strategic geographic location, its trade agreements, and a complex manufacturing base, the first half of 2025 has revealed a slowdown in certain segments and regions, negatively impacting growth expectations.

Global economic uncertainty has permeated investment decisions, leading many companies to postpone or reevaluate their expansion plans, decreasing demand for new industrial space. Additionally, a slowdown in nearshoring has been observed compared to initial expectations. While this continues to be a trend in Mexico, the challenges the country faces have impacted the arrival of new investments.

Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, we believe the Mexican industrial real estate market is undergoing a period of adjustment. While macroeconomic factors and global dynamics will continue to influence the market, the country's internal response capacity will be critical to overcoming the challenges posed by the first half of this year.