There is no electrical reform, which will bring confidence to investments
Forbes | April 19, 2022 |

The fact that the Electricity Reform will not reach a qualified majority of two-thirds in the Chamber of Deputies will be positive for Mexico, since it will help to give confidence and attract the investments that exist due to the migration of factories from Asia to the North American region.

Goldman Sachs is of the opinion that approval of the project would likely have affected general investor confidence, although it warns that the current administration still harbors deeply entrenched nationalist views on the oil, gas and mining sectors.

Therefore, the US firm considers that the operating environment for private sector investors and operators in these sectors is likely to continue to be a challenge in Mexico, although for Goldman Sachs the unity shown by the opposition parties implies that it will be difficult for the current administration to approve constitutional reforms, including the sought-after electoral reform.

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Bank of America Securities (BofA) points out that the rejection of the energy bill means that the electricity sector will remain open to private investment and that energy regulators will remain independent. Another sign is that the checks and balances are working in Mexico, which is represented by a strengthened opposition.

“We are now more constructive about investing in Mexico in the coming quarters due to the relocation of manufacturing from Asia to North America. Rejection of the energy bill should help assure investors that private investment in Mexico is safe.

In this sense, Bank of America believes that the country can take advantage of these opportunities, especially when considering this result together with the ratification of the T-MEC at the beginning of the administration, among other factors.

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“Recent global events, such as the trade war between the United States and China, the pandemic, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, are push factors that also favor relocation (or near-relocation) to Mexico,” he highlights.

Other analysts such as the director of Economic Analysis of Banco Base, Gabriela Siller, consider that the refusal of the president's electricity law does not eliminate the internal risks for Mexico's economic growth, such as the issue of concessions for the exploitation of lithium to companies private, which is already being discussed this Monday in the legislative chamber.

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