What is the oversupply volume in the country's office markets?
Solili | October 08, 2021 |

If a real estate market was notably affected, it was the corporate market, which, like the commercial one, had various access limitations; partly because of the rules dictated by the authorities that controlled the gauging, and partly, by the population itself, which decreased interactions outside the home as much as possible.

What is certain is that the office market had already been showing a significant oversupply in the Mexican case.

Currently, the national inventory is 14.7 million square meters, of which almost 80% are concentrated in Mexico City, where in December 2019, the period prior to the pandemic, there was a vacancy of 14.4%.

As of August 2021, the oversupply in the capital reaches 22.4%, having exceeded at least eight percentage points in just over a year and a half and in absolute terms they exceed the existing 2.5 million square meters.

Not all submarkets have the same situation in the capital, since the vacancy is concentrated in 5 submarkets that are Norte, Insurgentes, Santa Fe, Polanco and Reforma.

Of interest: Return to offices under a flexible hybrid scheme

The largest amount is in the North Submarket with 468 thousand square meters, followed by Insurgentes and San Fe with 463 and 426 thousand square meters, respectively.

In the case of the North submarket, the availability covers multiple dimensions from offices of less than 100 square meters to a complete corporate office on Cuauhtémoc Avenue of more than 50 thousand square meters.

If we analyze Polanco only in Class A construction, 227 thousand square meters advance, of which half are available. The interesting thing is that these buildings incorporate various design and mobility elements that would be making them more competitive compared to the vacancy of other existing buildings.

If we review Monterrey, the vacancy is mainly concentrated in three submarkets, where 75% of the inventory is located in the City. The submarkets are Valle Oriente with 66 thousand square meters, followed by Santa María and Ricardo Margain-Gómez Morin where 65 and 52 thousand square meters are located.

Most sizes are concentrated between 5 to 10 thousand square meters, although there are vacant options for complete buildings of up to 26 thousand square meters.

In Guadalajara, the Puerta de Hierro, Nueva Zona Financiera and Plaza del Sol submarkets concentrate the largest vacancies in the city with 261, 183 and 108 thousand square meters, which together account for just over 70% of the vacancy.

Here the volumes are much smaller than in Mexico City and Monterrey and if

we analyze the availability in new and modern buildings, only 26% of the 41 thousand meters that are built are available.

This indicates that the vacancy in Guadalajara would be concentrated in existing buildings, which is foreseeable in a city whose profile demands modern, flexible and technologically adapted corporate spaces that the new offer would be offering.

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Querétaro and Puebla with vacancies of 22.8% are characterized by having construction in progress close to 25% of their existing inventories, which indicates cities that are modernizing their corporate spaces.

In Querétaro, the bet was due to the important impulse that the Bajío had detonated, but that had a break as a result of the pandemic. The largest vacancy is located on the Centro Sur and Juriquilla submarket with 41 and 36 thousand square meters.

In Puebla, of the almost 70 thousand square meters vacant, 67% is concentrated in Angelópolis, the main submarket of the city. An atypical building stands out due to its size of 23.8 thousand square meters available, which has a significant impact on availability, although the rest are located in sizes of 1 to 5 thousand square meters, typical of the demand of the city.

Currently the markets of Mexico City, Monterrey, Guadalajara, Querétaro and Puebla are those that report oversupply, that is, vacancy rates higher than 15%.

If we start from the fact that to consider a market with an oversupply, there is a vacancy rate of 15%, there is a total of one million meters of oversupply in the country, however, this figure may increase as the projects enter inventory. that are currently under construction and still with high levels of availability.

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