The Mexican economy will grow 1.93% in 2023, which implies falls in the last two quarters of the year of less than 1%, considering that the United States dodges recession, it was indicated in the presentation of the "Economic Perspectives" of Grupo Financiero Base .

Regarding inflation, a greater downward trend is shown and it is estimated that it could close 2023 at 5.1%, while for 2024 it is considered to close at 3.8%, said Gabriela Siller, director of analysis.

Consult here: Industrial Solili Report April 2023, demand exceeds by 82% that registered until April 2022

It is expected that the Central Bank of Mexico will raise its interest rate by 25 base points on May 18, with which it could close 2023 at a maximum of 11.50% and that, if inflation continues with a downward trend, cuts could be made in the second half of 2024. If the US Federal Reserve raises the rate by 25 basis points to 5.25 percent in its May 3 announcement and Banxico does not raise it, the peso could depreciate moderately, generating moderate pressure on the inflation.

The main internal risks of the economy are problems of the rule of law, public security and trust in economic institutions; to high inflation, especially due to the pressures on the prices of services and labor costs, together with the upcoming electoral processes of 2023 and 2024.

Of interest: Fibras take advantage of investment opportunities in the face of the boom in industrial demand in Mexico

Regarding external risks, he listed a probable recession in the United States that is already anticipated due to the slowdown in economic activity, banking stress and the tightening of credit conditions. There is also the possibility of new supply shocks that can generate disruptions in supply chains, geopolitical conflicts and strong variations in commodity prices.

In addition to the responses of the United States in trade disputes and consultations on the United States-Mexico Canada Trade Agreement (TMEC), especially in energy and agricultural matters, along with the 2024 United States elections that could represent an additional factor of uncertainty for Mexico.

In Solili you can consult industrial warehouses available in Monterrey and Guadalajara

Original note