Economic activity would have suffered a fall of 0.4% at a monthly rate during December last year, according to advanced data released by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi). Taking into account the annual rate with Excelsior calculations, and if the leading indicator figures are confirmed, the country's GDP would grow 2.9% in 2022.

With information from the Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE), a drop of 0.4% is reported in December, added to a drop of 0.1% in November and a virtual stagnation in October of the year that ended.

Consult here: Guanajuato was positioned in 2022 as the fourth national market in industrial demand

For Banorte's experts, if the information for October and the estimates for November and December are considered, GDP in the last quarter of the year would have advanced around 0.4% at a quarterly rate.

"We think it is quite favorable, as certain challenges remain, including greater pessimism about activity in the United States, particularly in the industrial sector; the persistence of inflationary pressures in the core component, and the continuation of monetary tightening."

The Inegi report indicates that industry and consumption would have fallen 0.6 percent, also at an annual rate, during December 2022, which is consistent with the leading indicators for consumption, while the weakness abroad could be affecting the industry. Banorte analysts expect economic activity to have grown 3.0% in all of 2022. While Monex analysts anticipate it to have been 2.9%.

It is a higher number than what most analysts expected until a few months ago, but insufficient to recover pre-pandemic levels, for which an advance of 0.8% will be required in all of 2023," they commented.

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The Monex experts added that 34 months after the collapse due to the covid-19 pandemic, and unlike the vast majority of the rest of the countries, the Mexican economy is still struggling to get out of the economic havoc caused by the confinements.

Judging by the results of 2021 and 2022, it would seem easy that this year we completed the recovery process, the truth is that the figures show that the momentum that dominated has already been exhausted and, on the contrary, the beginning of 2023 could bring new contractions in the flows of monthly activity that little by little are cementing the notion of a recession at the door”, warned the economists.

It will be in February of this year when the Inegi reports on the GDP growth estimates for all of 2022.

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Original note