The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) reported that an inflation of 3% will be possible until the third quarter of 2024, despite the fact that minor disruptions and decreases have been observed in the international prices of some raw materials.

“The majority pointed out that, in this more complex environment, inflation is expected to converge to the 3 percent target in the third quarter of 2024,” revealed the minutes of the Meeting of the Board of Governors of Banco de México, with reason for the monetary policy decision announced on September 29, 2022.

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During the first fortnight of September 2022, headline inflation closed at 8.76%, while core inflation ended at 8.27%. And the inflation of food merchandise stood at 13.27% in the first half of September 2022.

“Among the upside risks to inflation, most mentioned the persistence of core inflation at high levels and external inflationary pressures stemming from the pandemic and the geopolitical conflict,” the central bank commented.

He added that the majority mentioned that the balance of risks regarding the expected trajectory for inflation in the forecast horizon continues with a considerable upward bias.

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He also considered the greatest challenges for the conduct of monetary policy in the face of tightening global financial conditions, heightened uncertainty, accumulated inflationary pressures from the pandemic and the geopolitical conflict, and the possibility of greater effects on inflation.

Based on this, and with the presence of all its members, it unanimously decided to increase the target for the overnight Interbank Interest Rate 7 to 9.25% by 75 basis points.

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Original note