Macroeconomic indicators and their impact on real estate investment
Solili | June 10, 2021 |

Real estate investment is the common component of family assets, including family offices and large investment funds.

The institutionalization of the Mexican market has fostered a range of options that allows from individual purchases of real estate, acquisition of participation in capital funds that are understood as collective investment structures or crowdfunding models, in which the investment amount is not a barrier at the entrance.

On the other hand, the immobility of real estate, the cyclical behavior of the market that represents booms and busts, the plurality in the way of monetizing, as well as the interaction between supply and demand shape its nature.

Depending on the final destination of the property, residential, commercial, offices or industrial, various economic indicators would be relevant when it comes to understanding each market and how to determine the optimal time to enter and exit.

In general terms, the behavior of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), the Industrial Activity Indicator (IAI), interest rates, inflation, the exchange rate of the peso against the dollar, directly affect the industrial and office sector.

Regarding the residential sector, it must incorporate demographic variables, especially employment and access to financing, in order to have a global reading of the risks and the investment opportunity.

At the end of May 2021, the preliminary figure for 1Q 2021 is released, where FDI reflects a significant contraction of 29.2% compared to 1Q 2020, closing at USD 11,864 million, according to the Ministry of Economy.

We recommend: Go up to 5% forecast for economic growth in Mexico

For its part, GDP, according to reports from the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit, registered a quarterly growth of 0.8% but a contraction of 2.8% compared to the same quarter of 2020, although growth projections are 5.3% per year.

The latest Industrial Activity Indicator published by INEGI at the end of March 2021, reports a monthly increase of 0.7% and an annual increase of 1.5%.

The cycle ended with the results of the election of authorities on June 6, 2021, which determined the new state and municipal governments, to which the market reacted favorably. The indicators issued by Banco de México maintain a target interest rate of 4%, with a projected inflation of 5.89%, at an exchange rate where the peso appreciates against the US dollar after the election results.

These figures in general terms did not affect all sectors in the same way, with the industrial sector being the most favored, since consumption habits in the midst of a pandemic and rapid adaptation to the use of technologies from supply to demand of products, allow projecting a growth of 10 to 15% in demand for the second quarter of 2021, according to Solili in its latest industrial report.

It may interest you: Solili Industrial Report May 2021: Demand continues to be active and will grow between 10 and 15% in 2Q 2021

Stay up to date with the most important news to the real estate

Subscribe Solili Newsletter