The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) met the market's expectation and raised the interest rate by only 25 basis points, reaching 11.25 percent. This is the smallest increase in the Banxico interest rate since November 2021, as part of the upward cycle that seeks to combat inflation in Mexico.

This index offered some 'relief' in the first half of March, slowing down more than expected by specialists and settling at 7.12 percent, although inflation is still far from Banxico's target range, which is 3 percent.

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With this decision, Banxico is once again 'in tune' with the Federal Reserve, which also increased its interest rate by 25 basis points just last week. Several factors influenced his decision, taken unanimously. Among them, the following stand out: the challenges faced by global financial conditions, the environment of uncertainty, the persistence of accumulated inflationary pressures and the possibility of a greater impact on inflation.

The Governing Board will make its next decision based on the inflationary outlook, considering the monetary position already achieved. Banxico also recognized that inflation decreased more than expected in its analyzes due to the evolution of the non-core component.

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Specialists consulted by Citibanamex expect more increases for the benchmark going forward, and forecast that it could close 2023 at 11.75 percent. Banorte, CI Banco, Scotiabank and XP Investments estimate that the interest rate will reach that level. The projection of those surveyed for 2024 is that the benchmark ends at 8.50 percent, with a maximum of 10.50 and a minimum of 6 percent.

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