Appreciation of the Mexican peso and how the Fed influences
Bloomberg | August 11, 2022 |

The Mexican currency gained 1.30% to trade at $19.9690 MX units per dollar, with a minimum and maximum of $19.994 and $20.2827, respectively.

The Mexican peso was the eighth most appreciated currency in a basket of 23 emerging currencies, according to data from Bloomberg.

“With today's good data on US consumer prices, the market intensifies its speculation that inflation may have already peaked, which could give the Fed room to at some point reduce its pace of rate hikes. interest rates”, said the deputy director of CiBanco Economic and Financial Analysis, James Salazar.

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Earlier, it was announced that inflation in the US increased 8.5% at an annual rate in July. The figure was lower than the 9.1% increase reported the previous month and which will show 40-year highs. The consensus of analysts from Bloomberg estimates an increase of 8.7%.

The foregoing changed the expectation regarding the next monetary policy announcement by the Fed, which will be made on September 21.

“In the Chicago futures market, bets are tipped with a 75% chance of a 50 basis point hike at the September meeting. Prior to the data, they were 32%”, said the strategist. The market began to discount an increase in the benchmark by 75 base points due to inflationary pressures.

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“The Federal Reserve has mentioned that several months of sustained reductions are needed to declare victory over inflation. We think that this is unlikely to happen in the remainder of 2022, since we expect inflation to end the year at 7.8%, "they mentioned in a note.

Another key element for the Mexican peso is the monetary policy announcement by the Bank of Mexico which, if the estimates are reached, will continue to benefit the local currency.

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Original note

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